I’ve found these twitter threads extremely illuminating… obviously very hard to tell what’s genuinely going on, but here is some information
Also many threads by this guy
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Awesome read, still in the middle of it.
Just wanted to add, the human condition is so fucked. Like I was watching this video: Ramzan Kadyrov released a new video of his army near Kiev - YouTube
(This is of a squad of Russian troops which, based on other news I read, was later totally demolished by the Ukrainians.)
And my instinctual/gut reaction was basically along the lines of, wow, wouldn’t it be cool to be part of this squad, armed to the teeth, to go and shoot/destroy/kill/demolish people/things.
Earlier I also felt something like, wouldn’t it be cool if the US took all their air power and flew over Ukraine and just took out all the Russian planes and helicopters etc., be they in the air or by bombing them while they’re on the ground.
Sensibly speaking I have no intention to do any of these things or join the army, and it’s in fact horrible that we humans do these things to each other… but it’s just to share and say that wow, bloodlust runs deep, and I, being in/part of/being the human condition, am not exempt from this.
I’m sorry @henryyyyyyyyyy, but that one never seemed anything else than like, Qanon style war prop to me. Smells like MI6.
Here’s a gloomy take instead: https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1501605376529158159
I’m… feeling like I got the reality I had in my head instead, which was intensely dark. No idea where I want to go with this, but there it is. I shift, everything shifts.
@claudiu Yeah, it’s funny how you respond so differently.
I’m frightened and obsessed with security (Andrew can tell some stories 
I’m packing my bug out bag as we’re taking, then looking at Flightradar24 for weird flight patterns around Gotland, then the news… rinse and repeat). The biggest dangers for me in a hyper recession, social chaos and war, as a female, is going to be just generally losing all my rights. I don’t have a partner (never, ever even joke to a prospective partner that your farts are atom bombs - pro tip from someone who could have been not single now), and elderly parents, and a dog that fell sick today to boot.
I also had the option of leaving Sweden. I haven’t, and maybe it’s because I’m a coward. I’d be in a country on the other side of the globe on a tourist visa with no knowledge of the customs and potentially not enough money. I’d leave everything in disarray to parents who thought I’d gone absolutely stark raving mad. Now that I think about it, maybe I should’ve left. Family ties are strong, so very strong, and I’m a coward.
It certainly seems sensible to do whatever is best for your safety, as well as to do whatever you have at your disposal to understand what is going on and what will happen!
I’d offer that the best way to make those decisions, to act for the security of this body, would be from a clear/happy/harmless space - so as always, that becomes the best priority
Regarding information/disinformation/psyops/fake news, it is interesting that it’s so difficult to tell what precisely is going on and why. Perhaps that is all happening on the psychic web. Obviously one side pushes one agenda, the other pushes another. And there are micro-agendas within different sub-groups, all the way down to the individual level.
I remember noticing some years back that when I was reading an article about some sports team, or entertainment, that they would use all these emotionally-charged words, ‘amazing,’ ‘terrible,’ that were really what the meat of the article was: “This is amazing!” “This person is terrible!” It wasn’t attached to something actual, it was just pushing a feeling.
And I see a ton of that with the current campaigns of information about the war. And of course, on the ground, actual soldiers are being shot and actual buildings are being shelled.
I think a critical ingredient in your position (and all of our positions) is, what do we do? It’s important to remember that we don’t have a genuine way to predict the future, and this situation is novel in many ways. Of course, we have some historical conflicts to point to. That tells us more than nothing. As well as historical political precedents, or historical precedents of humans acting out of the human condition.
All we can do is continue to watch and make the best decisions we can make.
@henryyyyyyyyyy Yeah. I think the window has closed for leaving though. Tomorrow will be a pretty seminal day by the looks of it; sanctions from Russia, peace talks which will fail and locally we’ll be having a discussion among all parties in our parliament about our future outside or inside NATO… and of course, those Polish airplanes. I think we’ll end up joining NATO (something that I genuinely don’t want, believe it or not, for lots of reasons). I also know that Russia is moving most of their government sites back onto their own backbone, which has a lot of people speculating whether they will eventually just sever their routes to the surrounding world to protect themselves from retaliation when doing cyber. It’s one of the most interesting times to be alive, ever, to be honest. So many things about society and technology and what not is being exposed and stress tested. I’m strangely in awe of what I’m seeing… and it’s kind of funny: imagine if all these people were actually free instead, doing things on such a grand scale.
And it’s funny, from my own twisted thoughts around this whole issue, I’ve decided to die. Because I don’t dare sit in a plane for 36 hours and risk landing in a world that’s entirely different.
Actually… what am I doing. My parents would send me off if they could see where this is leading. But they refuse. And so I’m hurting them now. So weird, all of this. Anyway, I need to eat and wash clothes.
Why has the window closed on leaving?
Deciding to die… there’s that same sacrificial mind we have! What use is another death for familial ties? Is that not the same reason we get swept into these wars in the first place? For what?
I suppose it is just as you said, ‘I’ would rather die for an idea, than risk doing something that feels scary. Nowhere is there intelligence in action
Correct. Trying to figure out tomorrows chain of events before I put myself on that plane so I don’t get stranded or turned around.
With the ruble falling 50%, their stock market closed and tens of thousands of jobs on hold, I think the intended effect is already happening. Perhaps you think rising oil prices will actually help them or did you mean to say the damage to yourselves will be greater than expected?
There’s no where for me to be had on my end. Very little room for interpretation and what wiggle room does exist doesn’t change the facts very much: Ukraine is a country with new leadership. Russia is a country run by the same despot for the last 20 years or so. That despot invaded Ukraine due to historic ties to the land. Ukraine is fighting back. Which propaganda could I be huffing? Perhaps, I think too highly of Ukraine. My impression is they are a country trying to modernize into being less corrupt and more democratic. I thought that is why a former president fled to Russia after ?2014? and how Zelensky was able to beat his successor, ?Porenshenko?, in a subsequent election. Now that timeline and those names are probably all fucked up. But that’s hardly huffing the propaganda. Now granted, Zelensky’s efforts to modernize the country may be far less inspired than I would be led to believe. In fact, he may be a despot too. Okay. It doesn’t change anything. The only fact that would change anything is if the war isn’t going as badly for the Russians as it looks. In that case, Finland and the Baltic countries may not be in as strong a position as I currently surmise. But please don’t tell me you think there are valid reasons for Putin to be in Ukraine.
Another area where I could be huffing is Putin’s attacks on the EU and the US. I am under the impression many of these are well documented and the ones that aren’t have enough evidence to warrant further investigation but I’m not an expert. I can recite some broad evidence uncovered in the Mueller report, an official investigative document here in the US, but other things I’ve been led to believe like Nigel Farage’s association with Kremlin operatives and the Kremlin financing various vigilante groups in Europe may be overstated. Even so, it doesn’t change things very much. The basics are still the same: Despot with a history of successfully meddling in American democracy invades neighboring country. The European population unites around said country. Despot’s forces are not as effective as expected, his army looks uninspired, poorly trained and poorly equipped. Discontent with Despot’s grows in his country. Advantage goes to all the despots enemies. Time to press that advantage. It’s pretty cut and dry.
Tiedustelueverstin arvio Venäjästä | 3.12.2018 - YouTube
Evaluation of Russia by Finnish Intelligence Colonel
My take on this war is that it is caused by the human condition and at the root of
it is the instinct of aggression. The best thing that I can do is remove this aggression in myself.
Putin being in Ukraine makes perfect sense, but it’s not sensible, if you know what I mean. I’m just hoping that the hysterical US propaganda hasn’t turned people into nuclear mongers, but I fear.
An interesting aside, the two biggest populations in the world are allies of Russia. India and China are putting forward a “neutral stance”, when in reality they are pro. I’ve been read a lot of comments of YouTube and there is a lot of general good will towards Russia from rhese sources.
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Vietnam, half of Asia.
If it’s came to a global vote of what should happen, it would be close. Not the “information victory” claims of purely western pointing media.
Actually, is that an “aside”? I think it’s a rather major point.
The primary reason to think Ukraine has a shot is that the Russian military isn’t controlling the sky’s yet. It’s been 2 weeks already. The other reason is their equipment is breaking down. The US would have destroyed every anti-aircraft position and airport and possible landing strip in the country before sending in ground. I can see a miscalculation if they thought shock and awe would win and limit losses. But now they are shelling cities. I will say that I am under the impression that much of the shelling is being done by the army but I don’t know if that’s true. So maybe most of it is being done by bombers and they are establishing air superiority in certain pockets. If that’s the case then the Russian advances will proceed in a matter of weeks and they won’t be stoppable. Though they should still expect heavy losses. Almost the entirety of the losses the US sustained in Iraq was during the occupation.
As far as Putin’s calculations. I didn’t watch the lecture. I can’t. I can read lectures but I can’t sit down and watch one. But the idea really is laughable that Putin invaded Ukraine to prevent anything. I wouldn’t mind a transcript. As far as Russian sanctions against the EU. I wouldn’t worry about it. Western nations don’t have the balls to incur heavy economic losses. The corporations who own those countries wouldn’t let them. Russia only has energy. Even the neon in Ukraine can be gotten elsewhere. It’ll just be pricier per the info I have. The cards Russia has is China and energy. But China can’t shut off the West anymore than the West can shutoff China. And evidently Russia overplayed it’s energy card. This is too huge of a surprise for me to comment more on.
Wait a minute. Did you just mention the VP of the USA? Kamala Harris. Oh. You’ve gone off your rocker. I’m sorry. Listen. Absolutely everyone is susceptible to propaganda. Vineeto once told me climate change can’t be real because the Earth is too big. LOL. She wasn’t even slightly aware of how unscientific that statement was. I think a newly free person used to support or did support Trump. It’s not necessarily emotional. I think certain things just make sense for them and they just assume they have it right and it’s others who must be wrong. When they get exposed, they forget about it. They shrug their shoulders and say “hmmm” then proceed to completely forget about it to such an extent that their views never changed despite having just been exposed. (As you are free to do with me here—when did the West threaten unrest and what’s the context around that?) Some people are just less persistent in their critical thinking than others. As a result, flawed opinions get through and last for much longer that they should. I think the emotion part hardens their positions and makes them violent but the cause of believing in nonsense isn’t necessarily emotional.
Following on from my statement above, a general war in Europe, with American involvement, wouldn’t this be a default victory for China, India, Asia, Africa etc?
Victory in terms of global economic share.
A lot of the semi-public (“expert”) discourse has been around using the sanctions to cause unrest in Russia, with the explicit end goal of toppling Putin. Maybe you remember the interview with a US congressman where he played all tough and told the Russians that one of them could always shoot Putin so all could be rid of him? They value stability a lot.
There is also the evidence that the 2014 “revolution” was a decade long CIA funded regime change. The whole TV series with Zelensky playing the president, the cultivation of extreme right wing (neo nazi) militia, which was the Azov movement, now a battalion of the Ukrainians national guard.
There isn’t even any effort to hide these things.
The corruption and drug abuse is also backed with atleast circumstantial evidence.
Both sides (US & NATO vs Russia / China and their alliances) need an enemy, as per Freud’s observations. They have pushed it this time all the way to war.
Also notice, that both the US / NATO and Russia have ageing populations. Ageing populations. Grumpy old men and women in other words.
The proverb “old men start wars, young men fight in them” seems appropriate.
@Andrew and @emp If the facts are on your side then you can do a lot better than this. @emp - your latest response is a head scratcher. Of course, the U.S. wants Putin to be overthrown. But Putin didn’t invade Ukraine as a counter-attack or did he? The prior U.S. responses to Putin’s past aggressions have been limited to isolated sanctions and unsuccessful attempts to get the EU off of Russia’s energy and oil supply. For Putin to be the defender, invading Ukraine would have to be an attempt to force the U.S. to abandon sanctions and other attempts at isolation like the gas deals. Now that I think about it, I guess I wouldn’t be too surprised. Leaders have done dumber things. GW and the neo-cons here in the US thought Iraq would turn into a flourishing democracy overnight. So, yea, Putin could just be dictating from a rabbit hole. Now that I think about it, it’s more likely Putin just rabbit holed himself into thinking the sanctions are nothing more than an attempt to isolate Russia from her natural perch and he has to defend Mother Russia from such aggression.