War

[Andrew]

@claudiu I often wondered that kind of thing when i was a kid. I used to think that the leaders should be made to have a boxing match. I was 12 and it was 1988. Regan and Gorbachev in the ring!

Historically, the world has come through arguably worse situations, such as the fall of the soviet union itself, when the nukes were literally laying around unguarded. .

The most obvious short term solution is for the Ukrainian leadership to sign the peace deal as it is. That would stop the war.

Whether it’s a good medium or long-term solution, i am not so sure. It really depends on what Putin is really trying to achieve.

Is it an energy war over the oil and gas in Ukraine? In which case, it seems that signing the deal would work.

But, the thing about that is rhe rhetoric that Putin used. He would then have to “de-nazify” Ukraine. Which sounds extremely ominous.

He would also have to then decide what to do about the leadership, considering the other claims that the are “drug addicts” (and nazis).

He could reel that statement back in to be speaking specifically about the donbas region.

However, as they are basically rather nebulous charges (the only “evidence” i saw so far of either, was from a Russian website, and Wikipedia. With some videos of racism at rhe borders. I can’t say either inspire confidence).

For Putin to actually navigate the post peace deal, there would have to be some very fast diplomacy and concessions to the existing leadership. Otherwise this will just keep rolling on. From my impression, Putin would want to restore his popularity very quickly. Those statements a so speculative though. It seemed bizarre he ordered the invasion at all, so i wonder if popularity is a consideration for him.

[Andrew]

Rhe more i think about it, and catch myself speculating in a direction, the more i know i am trying to get an intuitive answer.

Each thought has to jump to assumptions about the psychology of those involved making the decisions.

Which is obviously not going to happen.

I think the facts have to be the best defence against this being even more of a source for anger, fear and sorrow etc in me.

There is a lot of information from a lot of sources. From listening to Putin’s speeches, to the videos and speeches by other leaders. I see many things being repeated which are going down the “putin has lost it” path, i see a lot of praising Zelensky, which is a very predictable narrative.

There is plenty of information about the oil and gas, nato membership, and strategic importance.

One of rhe interesting questions about nato, was whether the US and others are actually committed to it. The mutual “if one is attacked, all defend” agreement. Which is very central to the whole idea it’s strategic defence that was the reason for the invasion.

That would change everything if it turned out that nato wasn’t actually the defence agreement it is assumed to be. As far as i know, it has never been tested. Or has it? Wasn’t there an incident with Turkey?

Still, so many variables. It seems that the immediate peace deal is the very best outcome. Obviously.

I noticed that the way people talk about the situation freely interchanges between the casualties and defending the land. As if they are the same.

[emp]

A bit of the human condition from the breakfast table: the economy is going down the crapper pretty fast here. Stock market is weirdly bumping in the positive and nobody knows why. Diesel prices are making things untenable for everything transport (ours are the highest in the world right now).

When genuinely asking my father if massive inflation and all the other consequences were worth it (farmers are currently on their knees), “nothing is too much compared to the suffering of Ukraine”. I’m currently speechless. This feels religious. It was the same thing with him for Covid. I asked him how we could help Ukraine if we’re sending ourselves down the crapper: “it’s worth it.”

I’m trying to quit the melodrama and just brace right now. Feeling weirdly calm.

Also kind of happy to label myself the queen of melodrama right now.

[Andrew]

Haha, all hail the queen!

It’s classic identity stuff really. In fact it is bringing out a whole lifetime of identity stuff in me.

What i hope for? This is probably one of those golden moments in my life were it is so clear what i am choosing. Also one were the automatic identification process is so blatantly obvious.

I want to be aligned. I am automatically aligned.

I was at work as usual, and my friend there, (whom i spent Sunday night down at his farm, looking up at the milky-way and drinking rum until 3 in the morning with - great time ) responded to my comment “the western attention span will move on soon”, with: “soon? It already has”.

Let’s give it a guess figure and say 90% of all the people don’t give a hoot about what is happening in Ukraine, and a large proportion of the remainder will lose interest this week. . This is actually really great to me.

I honestly don’t think world wars are possible anymore. Far too much indifference, individuality, other much more pressing issues, far too quick access to information.

I felt it the other day after posting on Facebook. It was like “ive done my bit” and emotionally felt like moving on.

But i will say that i think that the Russian leadership knows this. I admit i believe they know it. They are counting on the political will of Western countries to pander to the fleeting attention of their population, and sound bites will become more frenetic, until putin gets what he and his circle really wants : a land bridge between Russia and Crimea.

When the peace deal is finally signed, because the Western political attention span has turned elsewhere, and they are busy congratulating themselves on containing putin to the donbas region and Crimea, the real deals will be struck regarding who gets cuts on the trillions of oil and gas.

King of melodrama here, unrelated.

[Andrew]

I read something about the psychology of “older” men; when sex loses it’s appeal, money and power are their surrogate.

There are a lot of old men in this picture. If anything, there is some comfort in this. Strong identities will do anything to preserve themselves.

[Andrew]

Regarding the “land bridge” hypothesis;

One of the things Ukraine did when Russia annexed Crimea, was cut of the canal which supplied 80% of its water. Russia ended up spending billions on infrastructure to keep Crimea functioning.

The naval port is key to control of the black Sea, and thus the oil and gas which Romania, Turkey and Ukraine have interests in, under that sea.

One thing that I’ve been contemplating is just how different the psyches of “world leaders” must be, in particular Putin. He does have complete control, and is in a very different league to the “come and go” western parade of “leaders”. There has not been anything like him in my lifetime.

None of the western leaders have anything close the the personal ability to control. I realise this is “fan boy” territory, but when i think of someone like Biden and his circle, and compare it to Putin and his circle, there is no comparison in sheer ability to wield power.

The US has far more power, but as a whole, as an economic military and cultural phenomenon. So the commander in chief obviously has immense “power”. But not personal, immediate, depth of soul power. The ability to manipulate at a personal level, national, and international level.

Honesty, i don’t know why Russia always had such a strong appeal to me. Something about it.

I wonder what would happen if anyone translated Actualist material into Russian? I am going to bet; something very special.

[Andrew]

On the topic of “power”, i recently read Orwell’s “1984”. Incredibly good, well written, and thoughtful work.

The stand out line was “power is the ability to inflict pain”. To inflict it, manipulate via it, and maintain it. Power is it’s own reason too. It’s not power to do anything, but power to remain in power.

All the wars in the book were only waged to soak up the production, and keep the population poor enough to remain under control. The purpose of war was to waste production. Production was there to fund war. War to waste production. It change the enemy almost instantly, but war must remain constant.

As long as production was thrown into war, the maintenance of power for it’s own sake, could happen.

[Andrew]

At no time was the point of war the conquest of enemy territory. The point of war was war and to soak up the resources of production. The wealth creation was in itself irrelevant to the maintenance of power.

Orwell wrote the book just after WWII. It is very interesting to note that not a lot of territory ever changed hands.

[milito.paz]

It’s funny you mention that. If it wasn’t for a Russian Quora user by the name of Artem Boytsov, I wouldn’t have made it to the AFT. He cited it in one of his answers that impacted me. He writes some interesting stuff if anyone’s interested.

[Kiman]

@Andrew

this scene would even happen here in Australia.

Why do you think so? What do you think is the reason?

[Andrew]

Very interesting!! Yes, i would like to read what he has written, if you are able to find it again.

Do you speak Russian?

[Andrew]

I may just be needlessly comparing as a habit of speech. Australia can be very friendly too.

I would say it impacted me more due to the situation, expectations and language barrier.

[Andrew]

Ah, i found him. An interpretation of enlightenment, which goes the whole no self way of things.

Influenced by actualism it would seem to me.

[milito.paz]

No unfortunately I don’t speak Russian. My father was something of a non Russian speaking Russophile if that makes sense. He grew up in Afghanistan and looked up to the USSR like many Latin Americans might look up to the US (example of economic prosperity… I’m aware and am glad many Latin Americans don’t). Of course he became disillusioned and he and his family were forced to leave their homeland, staunch opponents of the Soviet invasion. Having said that I grew up on a solid diet of Lenin, Stalin, 70s and 80s Soviet ballads, movies such as “The Irony of Fate”, the stories, long and short, of Maxim Gorky, the 60s comedies of Shurik, the great goalkeeping of Lev Yashin and Rinat Dasaev among other things. He always made a distinction between the early fraternal Soviet Union and its social-imperialistic degeneration in the 70s and 80s. He still had a soft spot for it and its lifestyle and culture though. I have a great uncle who was a diplomat stationed in Moscow in the 70s and 80s, and was many times in the presence of Brezhnev and Andropov even if I’m not mistaken. He always spoke of the kindness of the Russian people. He remembers entering restaurants and if eating alone, being invited by a family to join them instead of sitting alone, walking down streets and being offered a lift by driver after driver.

You know, stuff like that haha

[emp]

Hmm. I think stuff’s about to get really ugly. If there was ever a time to become actually free, it’s now.

[Andrew]

Wow, that is a lot of very interesting experiences and history there!

I was somewhat familiar with the fascination that Russian women had with south America, i didn’t know it went the other way in general.

So the culture is very familiar to you. Well, i guess there’s still something of that left, or being revived.

[Andrew]

@milito.paz what is your take on the current events?

[JonnyPitt]

I’m gonna divide my response into two. 1) Vibes 2) Geo-politics.

1. My take is how funny it is that Europe is so united for Ukraine when they were downright hostile towards Syria let alone lands much farther away. Clearly, the Europeans feel Ukraine is one of them and Syria is not. The same is true here in USA btw. Here, everyone but the far right has shown a very enthusiastic support for Ukraine. In contrast, very little support was expressed for Syrian rebels or the citizens of Hong Kong. Clearly, the average American feels him/herself to be a part of what’s called the West and Ukraine to be a part of that. I knew humans were tribal but I had only seen it in the negative before: Attacking the other, blaming the other or being indifferent towards the plights of the other. This is the first time I’ve seen tribalism create any sort of fellowship (outside of sporting events).

2. I find it odd anyone wouldn’t want to press their advantage against Russia right now. Russia has been attacking Europe and the US for about six years now. Europe and the US have not been counter-attacking or even defending themselves. In the US, some sanctions were placed after the 2016 hacking and investigations were launched. But the entire defense unraveled before it even started. The reputation of the political parties became the central concern and any defense had to be marginal to avoid bad press. Today the Kremlin still has operatives influencing, probably, each and every EU state as well as the USA and Canada. Afaik, no state has even begun to legally uproot these operatives. (not entirely true - the US indicted a few dozen Russian nationals and a few Americans) But now those operations are stalling and the Kremlin itself is open to a counter-attack. Now would be the time to strike harder. At least start preparing to receive the enemy. Sanctions and boycotts are the tightest they’ve ever been because the population of Europe and the U.S. have shown the necessary solidarity. To avoid escalating with any enemy when you’re a united people on your own land and they are a divided people on foreign land with a military that can’t traverse hostile territory or achieve air superiority despite a 20-1 advantage in numbers would be a hilarious retreat. A real blunder. Now is the time for advancing. Of course, you don’t want to advance too far. The goal isn’t to take Moscow. It’s to stop the shelling and significantly weaken Putin.

[emp]

@JonnyPitt I don’t think the sanctions have the intended effect at all, and will go down as the most spectacular, emotionally driven self own in history… by the EU.

[emp]

I have to admit, I’m in a weird mood now. They’ve raised our threat level in Sweden to “likely to see activity”. I’m sort of expecting to get a tac nuke on my head in my sleep.

Maybe I shouldn’t just sit around but I don’t know what to do. The dog is hurt. Tomorrow we’ll get the sanction list by Russia and I’m sort of expecting the unified EU to just go “we’ll take it”, in this weird dance of death. I feel like there’s barely any sanity left. But this is all happening in my head. Aaaaanyway.

Melodrama llama signing off.